Saturday 25 June 2016

Health and Economic Growth



Researcher names/ Year
Objective
Methodology and Data
Finding
Previous Finding/ Discussion
(Tapia Granados, 2012)



Analyzes the relation between health progress, as measured by annual gains in Life Expectancy at Birth, LEB (or declines in mortality), and economic growth.
Using data for England and Wales during the years 1840-2000 (160 years).
LEB is the indicator of population health.
LEB and mortality data were obtained from the Human Mortality Database.  GDP and GDP per capita are from Maddison (2003)
Some of the data excludes corresponding to war years 1914-1918 and 1939-1945 and also excludes year 1918 due to flu pandemic.
Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test
vCointegrating Regression Durbine Watson (CRDW) test
v  Johansen test
The negative relation is found between economic growth- measured by the rate of growth of gross domestic product (GDP) -and health progress. The lower is the rate of growth of the economy, the greater is the annual increase in LEB for both males and females.
v  No cointegration in long run.
Harvey Brenner (1983) recessions caused increases in both infant and adult mortality in Britain and other countries. Brenner (2005), economic growth has been the central factor in mortality rate decline in the US over the 20th century. (Positive relation)
Brenner’s critic Jay Winter (1983), who found infant mortality in Britain falling quickly during recessions in 1920-1950. (Negative relation)
(Huang, Fulginiti, & Peterson, 2010)
The paper focuses on the impacts of health on education and economic growth.
 The theoretical model is a three-period overlapping generations model where individuals go through three stages in their lives, namely, young, adult, and old.
The model extends existing theoretical models by allowing the probability of premature death to differ for individuals at different life stages.
Potential endogeneity is addressed by using various strategies, such as controlling for country-specific time-invariant unobservables and by using the male-circumcision rate as an instrumental variable for HIV/ AIDS prevalence.
HIV/AIDS leads to lower life expectancy or higher probability of premature death in African countries cause people are less likely to invest in human capital and casue the country ends up with less human capital and slower economic growth in the long run. (Positive relation).
Kalemli-Ozcan (2002) in the research finds that economic growth is promoted as a result of declining mortality. (Positive relation).
Bonnel (2000) found that the disease resulted in a reduction in per capita growth in Africa of 0.7 percentage points. (Positive relation).
Bloom and Canning (2000, 2005) find that, improvements in longevity lower fertility, raise educational investment, and raise the long run growth rate of output. (Negative relation).
Acemoglu and Johnson (2006) suggest that improving health may have a negative impact on GDP per capita because increased life expectancies lead to larger total populations and lower per capita income. (Negative relation).
(Tai, Chao, & Hu, 2015)
The purpose of this paper is to consider the growth effect of aid allocation on healthcare and pollution abatement, and then to investigate the tradeoff between environmental protection and economic growth in the economy.
Endogenous growth model.
Variables:
 1. Total expenditure on health as % of GDP, 2. General government expenditure on health as % of total government expenditure, 3. External resources for health as % of total expenditure on health, 4. Per capita total expenditure on health (US$).
The data are obtain from World Health Statistics (WHO, 2011).
Poor health and worsening pollution are major concerns affecting production efficiency and economic growth in many developing economies.
During the 2003 SARS period, GDP fell by 0.25% (NT$22 billion) in Taiwan.. (Positive relation).
Expenditures on healthcare are lowered for developing countries (4.9–9% of GDP) compared to devel-oped countries (9.5–18%).
Cf. Agénor (2008), when SARS occurred in 2003 in China, consumers avoided going to public places to engage in leisure activities. This lowered the demand for goods and services, and thereby had a negative impact on the utility of consumers. (Positive relation)

(Gong, Li, & Wang, 2012)
This paper analyzes the effect of health investment, and hence of health capital, on physical capital accumulation and long-run economic growth.
Hausman's specification test (i.e., m-statistic) to test the null hypothesis that all random effects parameters are zero.
F statistics
Ordinary Least Square (OLS).
Genaralized Least Square (GLS)
Used a panel data from individual provinces of China, which is 28 Chinese provinces over 25 years.
Positive effect of health investment on economic growth using a panel data from individual provinces in China.
Negative effect of health investment on economic growth is determined by the ratio of health investment to physical capital stock and is statistically significant.
In the short-term, the growth of health improves economic growth. (Positive relation)
In the long run, the trend of increasing health level as the economy grows leads to a slowdown in economic growth.  (Negative relation)
Baumol (1967) and van Zon and Muysken (2001, 2003) if “health” is a normal good, then health level/ health investment/spending will continue to increase in the process of economic growth and may crowd out physical capital investment and thus harm economic growth in the long run. (Positive relation)
Bloom, Canning, and Jamison (2004); Bloom, Canning, and Sevilla (2004) surveyed the results of 13 related studies found that a one-year increase in life expectancy raises output by 4%. (Positive relation)
Arora (2001) found a causal relationship between economic growth and health in ten industrialized countries and the result shows that health contributes to economic growth permanently but the same does not hold for the effect of economic growth on health.
(Assuero, Freitas, & Stamford, 2013)
To analyze the impact of health system in the economic growth based upon three macroeconomic models.
To evaluate what is the adequate policy for the allocation of resources for the optimal economic growth given the explicit presence of the healthcare sector in the economy.
Firstly, model of an economy with only one sector which is the productive sector with morbidity.
Secondly, economy is divided into two sectors which are productive sector and health sector.
The presence of the health system increases the life expectancy and the aggregate product, but does not modify the per capita product.
Thomas Malthus (1978) stated who advocated the positive control of the population suggesting the construction of houses close to mangroves and the narrowing of streets in order to provoke the return of plagues, saying that……but above all we must repudiate specific medicine for overwhelming diseases…  but in this research stated that the healthcare sector increase society’s well-being because aggregate product is greater than the aggregate product of an economy with morbidity and without a healthcare system.
(Liang, Li 2010)
To examine empirically the sources of economic growth based on an augmented Mankiw, Romer, & Weil’s model which considers human capital in the forms of both health & education for a group of East Asian economics including China.
Empirical results are based on the analysis of a panel data set from 1961-2007.
Sub-sample estimation for the post-1997 Asian Financial Crisis period is also considered for comparison purposes.
The impact of stock of health & education on economic growth is statistically significant for both whole sample & sub sample period.
However, the impact of investment in education on economic growth is a little “fragile”.
The statistical results show that statistical impact of health on economic growth is stronger than of education.
Based on the econometric method, there is an argument on Islam (1995) stated that because there are some unobserved effects obtained in the error terms, for example the country specific technology shift that is correlated with the saving rate and the population growth rate, it is more appropriate to use a fixed-effect model than a random effect model but in this study they performed the two stage least square estimation as a comparison.
Nguyen Thi Minh Thoa et al (2013)
To investigate how the health care utilization changes when the economic condition is changing at a household level.

They analyzed a panel data of 11260 households in a rural district of Vietnam.
Of the sample, 74.4% having an income increase between 2003 & 2007 were defined as households with economic growth.
They used a double-differences propensity score matching technique to compare the changes in health care expenditure as percentage of  total expenditure & health utilization from 2003-2005, from 2003-2007, & from 2005-2007, between households with & without economic growth.
Households with economic growth spent less percentage of their expenditures for health care, but used more provincial/central hospitals (higher quality health care services) than household without economic growth.
The differences were statistically significant.
This study provides a different viewpoint of the close link between economic status and healthcare utilization of households in rural Vietnam.
Unlike others studies demonstrating a cross-sectional association between economic status and healthcare utilization, our results demonstrate a longitudinal relationship showing how healthcare utilization changes when the economic status is changing.
Next, we used a similar analytical approach as the one used in Thanh et al.  but with different groups of the treated and controls (poor vs. non-poor in that study and EG vs. non-EG in our study).
Kuan-Ming Wang (2011)
To determine whether long-term relationship between the increase in health care expenditure and the economy growth is stable, and investigate the short-term causal relationship and influence.
Used panel regression analysis and quantile regression analysis.
Panel regression analysis including unit root and panel cointegration test, and Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) to estimate the VECM model-type panel.
Wald coefficient test to examine the causes among the variables of health care spending and the economic growth.
The quantile regression analysis is to examine the causality between an increase in health care expenditure and economic growth under different quantile levels of economic growth.
The yearly data includes 31 sample countries from 1986 to 2007 obtained from OECD Health Data.
There cointegration relationship between health care expenditure and GDP and they are complementary.
The estimation of the panel type error correction model indicates that in the short-run, health care expenditure growth will stimulate economic growth. However, economic growth will reduce health care expenditure growth.
The results of quantile regression indicate that in countries with a low level of economic growth, health care expenditure growth will reduce economic growth.
In countries with medium and high levels of economic growth, the influence of health care expenditure growth on economic growth is positive.
This paper found that health care expenditure and GDP that involve cointegration are different from Hansen and King (1996) and Culyer (1990) that there is no long-run relationship between health care expenditure and GDP.

Habib Nawaz Khan et al (2015)
The aim of the paper is to investigate the relationship between health care expenditure (HCE) and economic growth.
The causality between HCE and economic growth in the Selected South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries.
Used panel data from 1995 to 2012.
Panel unit root test to determine the order of integration of each variable.
Panel cointegration tests to examine the long run relationship between HCE and economic growth.
Panel Dynamic Least Squares (PDOLS) and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) technique to estimate the long-run and short-run coefficients.
The data obtained from WDI, SESRIC, WHO, and HRC.
They found a significant long run relationship between HCE and economic growth in the South Asian countries.
There exists short-run relationship between HCE and per capita income in the SAARC countries.
There is presence of bi-directional causality between HCE and economic growth in the short run.
In this study, the findings support that there is bi-directional causality between HCE and economic growth in short-run. However, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) non-homogeneous panel causality result supports the presence of unidirectional causality running from per capita income to HCE in South Asian countries in the short run.
Wen-Yi Chen (2015)
The aim of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship between health progress and economic growth in USA.
The data in this study covered the period from 1934 to 2010.
Data were collected from Human Mortality Database, Williamson (2013) and Chantrill (2012).
This study adopts the continuous wavelet analysis and discrete wavelet analysis to investigate the dynamic relationship between health progress and economic growth.
The sign of correlation between health progress and economic growth relies on the strength of the positive (or negative) correlation in the short and medium runs, and negative (or positive) correlation in the long run.
The findings from continuous wavelet analysis reconcile a pro-cyclical pattern in life expectancy at birth in the long run with the opposite pattern in life expectancy at birth in the short run with respect to the economic growth.
In this study, health progress and economic growth depend on the strength of the positive (or negative) correlation in the short and medium run, and negative (or positive) correlation in the long run. Previous studies such as Tapia Granados and Diez Roux (2009), Tapia Granados (2005), Brenner (2005), and Ruhm (2007), (2005), (2003), (2000) investigating the relationship between health and economic growth in the USA never found positive (negative) relationship between health progress and economic growth in the short (long) run.


*Notes
WDI- World Development Indicator
SESRIC- Statistical, Economic and Social Research Training Centre for Islamic Countries
WHO- World Health Organization
HRC- Human Resource Centre






REFERENCES
Assuero, M., Freitas, L. De, & Stamford, A. (2013). The in fl uence of the healthcare system on optimal economic growth. Economic Modelling, 35, 734–742. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2013.08.023
Gong, L., Li, H., & Wang, D. (2012). Health investment, physical capital accumulation, and economic growth. China Economic Review, 23(4), 1104–1119. doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2012.07.002
Huang, R., Fulginiti, L. E., & Peterson, E. W. F. (2010). Health and growth : causality through education. China Agricultural Economic Review, 2(3), 322–343. doi:10.1108/17561371011078444
Liang, H. L. and H. (2010). Health , education , and economic growth in East Asia. Journal of Chinese Ecocomic and Foreign Trade Studies, 3(2), 110–131. doi:10.1108/17544401011052267
Tai, M.-Y., Chao, C.-C., & Hu, S.-W. (2015). Pollution, health and economic growth. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 32(February 2014), 155–161. doi:10.1016/j.najef.2015.02.004
Tapia Granados, J. a. (2012). Economic growth and health progress in England and Wales: 160 years of a changing relation. Social Science and Medicine, 74(5), 688–695. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2011.11.019
Thoa, Nguyen Thi Minh, Nguyen Xuan Thanh, Nguyen Thi Kim Chuc, and Lars Lindholm. 2013.               “The Impact of Economic Growth on Health Care Utilization: A Longitudinal Study in Rural                Vietnam.” International Journal for Equity in Health 12 (1). International Journal for Equity in            Health: 19. doi:10.1186/1475-9276-12-19.
Chen, W.-Y. (2015). Health progress and economic growth in the USA: the continuous wavelet                    analysis. Empirical Economics. doi:10.1007/s00181-015-0955-6
Khan, H. N., Khan, M. A., Razli, R. B., Sahfie, A. B., Shehzada, G., Krebs, K. L., & Sarvghad, N.              (2015). Health Care Expenditure        and Economic Growth in SAARC Countries (1995–                    2012): A Panel Causality Analysis. Applied Research in Quality of Life.   doi:10.1007/s11482-            015-9385-z

Wang, K.-M. (2011). Health care expenditure and economic growth: Quantile panel-type analysis.                 Economic Modelling, 28(4), 1536–1549. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2011.02.008


 Low Ai Vy
   Nur Athirah
      Ros Amira

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